Every buyer I talk to lately asks some version of the same question: “Now that the election is over, are mortgage rates finally going to come down?”
It’s a fair question. Housing affordability was one of the defining issues of this election — Democrats swept both the House and the Senate campaigning on it. But if you’re waiting for Washington to deliver you a lower rate, I have to be honest: that’s not how mortgage rates work, and waiting could cost you more than it saves. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what smart buyers are doing about it.
What actually happened in the markets
The morning after the election, bond markets gave homebuyers a small gift. Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in nearly two months — the 10-year Treasury dropped to around 4.9% — because investors expect a Democratic Congress to restrain new federal spending and borrowing. Less government borrowing generally means less upward pressure on interest rates.
Mortgage rates followed. The average 30-year fixed rate is around 7.24–7.3% depending on the survey, down for the third straight week and the lowest since September.
But context matters. That same 10-year Treasury started 2026 near 4.19%. Rates today are still roughly a full percentage point higher than they were a year ago, when the 30-year fixed averaged 6.17%. What we got this week was a dip — a welcome one — not a drop.
Why Congress can’t fix your rate
Three realities every buyer should understand:
The new Congress doesn’t start until January. Anything it might do on housing is months away at best, and most legislation would need the President’s signature or a veto-proof majority.
Congress can block new spending, but it can’t unwind what’s already in place. That’s why analysts across Wall Street are describing the bond rally as relief, not a reversal.
The Federal Reserve matters far more than Capitol Hill. The Fed held rates steady in late October, and heading into its December meeting, the market is pricing in roughly a 78–80% chance of another rate hike. The next big rate mover isn’t a vote in Washington — it’s Friday’s jobs report and the Fed’s December decision.
In short: the election removed one source of uncertainty, and markets rewarded that. It did not change the fundamental math of inflation, federal borrowing, and Fed policy that keeps rates where they are.
The waiting paradox
Here’s the part that surprises people. Rates have now fallen three weeks in a row — and buyers still aren’t coming back. Purchase applications fell again last week and are running 19% below last year. Refinance activity is 60% below a year ago. Surveys earlier this fall found about 62% of prospective buyers are waiting for rates to fall before they buy.
I understand the instinct. But consider what waiting actually risks:
- If rates dip meaningfully, every sidelined buyer re-enters at once — and you’re competing against all of them, likely bidding prices up.
- If the Fed hikes in December, today’s “high” rate becomes the one you wish you’d taken.
- Every month of waiting is a month of rent that builds no equity.
What buyers are doing instead
The buyers who are successfully purchasing right now aren’t timing the market. They’re structuring the payment. A few of the tools in play:
Adjustable-rate mortgages. ARM share of applications just hit its highest level since September 2025. A 5/1 ARM currently averages around 6.29% — a full point below the 30-year fixed. On a $390,000 home with 20% down (a $312,000 loan), that’s a principal-and-interest payment of about $1,929 a month versus $2,139 on the fixed rate — roughly $210 a month saved, with the rate locked for the first five years.
Temporary rate buydowns. A 2-1 buydown, often paid by the seller, drops your rate by two points in year one and one point in year two — easing you into the payment while you wait for a refinance opportunity.
Assumable loans and recasts. Searches for both have surged for a reason: assuming a seller’s low-rate FHA or VA loan, or recasting after a large principal payment, can cut a payment without needing market rates to cooperate.
None of these are right for everyone — an ARM, in particular, needs an honest conversation about how long you’ll be in the home. But they share one principle: control the payment you can control today, and keep a refinance plan for tomorrow.
The bottom line
The election gave mortgage rates a nudge in the right direction, nothing more. The forces that will decide where rates go next — inflation data, jobs numbers, and the Federal Reserve — don’t care who won on Tuesday.
So the question isn’t really “when will rates go down?” It’s “does the payment work, with the right structure, on the right house, today?” For more buyers than realize it, the answer is yes.
Thinking about buying, or wondering whether a different loan structure could lower your payment? Call or text me at (630) 708-7088, or reach me here: neighborhoodloans.com/dylan-kramer. We’ll run your real numbers — not headlines — and build a plan that fits your budget now and positions you to refinance if rates improve.
Rates cited are national averages as of November 4, 2026 (Freddie Mac, Mortgage Bankers Association, and market reports) and are subject to change. This post is for general information only and is not financial advice or a commitment to lend. Payment examples show principal and interest only and exclude taxes, insurance, and any mortgage insurance.
